Below-Normal Rain Likely in September After India’s Warmest August Since 1901: IMD Forecast

India’s monsoon is heading toward a deficit year after the weather department forecast below-normal rainfall for September, the final month of the season. Rainfall is expected to fall below 91% of the long-period average, while the overall deficit, already at 14% on Aug. 31, is likely to widen.

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During September, many parts of the country are likely to receive below-normal rainfall. However, some areas of northwest, northeast, east, and east-central India and isolated areas of Southeast Peninsular India are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall.

The forecast follows the country’s warmest August since records began in 1901. The India Meteorological Department said the national mean temperature reached 28.01°C, 0.67°C above the long-period average. Much of the country received below-normal rain, allowing temperatures to rise, although rainfall across the Indo-Gangetic plain helped keep temperatures there in check.

IMD Director General M. Mohapatra said moderate to strong El Niño conditions persisted through August. Four low-pressure systems formed, including two depressions, but their activity remained concentrated over the Indo-Gangetic plain. Rainfall largely missed the western coast, extending from Punjab, he said.

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We had moderate to strong El Niño conditions prevailing through August, and while four low-pressure systems also developed, the activity was mainly confined across the Indo-Gangetic Plain region. This also included two depressions developing.

The department expects above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures across most of India in September. El Niño is forecast to strengthen through November and December and continue into early winter next year. Rainfall may be normal or above normal in parts of northwest, northeast, east and east-central India, as well as isolated areas of the southeast peninsula, while much of the country is expected to remain drier than normal.

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El Niño should continue to strengthen till about November and December. El Niño conditions will also prevail during the early winter next year.

Agricultural commodity expert G. Chandrashekhar said the timing and distribution of rain mattered more for farming than the total amount alone. He said prospects for a good kharif harvest had already weakened and that uneven rainfall could affect the size, quality and yields of the 2026-27 crop.

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The forecast means that this year’s rainfall is likely to be below 90% of the LPA. But for agriculture, the total quantum of rainfall is less important than its temporal and spatial distribution.