Beyond Pax Americana: China is Sawing Off the Branch It Sits On

China's remarkable ascent is often attributed to its diligence, talent, and ambition. However, this commentary argues that a crucial, often overlooked, factor is its access to the global market, facilitated by an international order largely shaped by its rivals. This reliance on external systems means that China's own trade policies could ultimately prove self-defeating.

The article contends that China has skillfully leveraged existing power structures for its growth, initially relying on the Soviet Union and later utilizing Western markets following Deng Xiaoping's reforms. This historical context suggests that Beijing may be underestimating the foundational importance of the Washington-influenced global order for its continued success.

Currently, China holds dominant positions in key global industries and supply chains. Its increasingly assertive pursuit of industrial supremacy has led to ignored complaints from Europe and the United States. The failure to address the issue of overcapacity, in particular, is alienating trading partners and fueling frustration with Chinese trade practices.

This growing discontent is prompting the U.S. and Europe to consider stringent countermeasures to protect their own industries. The authors warn that the long-term consequences of China's actions might diverge significantly from Beijing's expectations, highlighting a paradox where its pursuit of dominance could jeopardize the very system that enabled its rise.