Black-Red Coalition Secures Clear Majority for German Presidential Vote

The CDU, CSU and SPD have secured a clear mathematical majority in Germany’s Federal Convention for the election of a successor to President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, despite the AfD’s strong result in Saxony-Anhalt.

Calculations by Wahlrecht.de, seen by Der Spiegel, put the three coalition partners at 685 to 687 seats in the body. The first two rounds of the presidential election require 631 votes, meaning the projected black-red majority cannot be overturned by the two state elections still scheduled for Sept. 20.

Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania will send 13 members to the Federal Convention and Berlin 25. Even if both the CDU and SPD failed to enter the state parliaments in those elections, an outcome described as entirely unrealistic, the coalition’s arithmetic majority would remain intact. The calculations use current Infratest dimap polling for the two votes and project 433 seats for the CDU/CSU and 252 to 254 for the SPD.

The Federal Convention will meet on Jan. 30 next year to choose Steinmeier’s successor. Steinmeier cannot seek another term after serving two terms. The convention consists of the Bundestag’s 630 members and an equal number of representatives chosen by the 16 state parliaments. A candidate needs a majority of all members in the first two rounds, while a simple majority is enough in the third.

The projected advantage could still shrink if lawmakers defect from their parliamentary groups. Berlin’s political debate has included speculation about possible candidates, including CSU politician Ilse Aigner. The coalition parties have agreed to wait until after the September state elections before nominating a candidate, saying they first wanted to know the exact balance of forces. The calculations indicate that their broad majority is already secure.

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who receives the votes of the majority of the members of the Federal Convention