Boko Haram, banditry, clashes driving poverty across North, Report

Violent conflicts across northern Nigeria are deepening poverty and weakening households' ability to withstand economic shocks, according to a new report. The study, titled “Insecurity, Livelihoods and Welfare in Northern Nigeria,” pinpoints the Boko Haram/ISWAP insurgency in the Northeast, farmer-herder conflicts in the North-Central, and banditry and kidnapping in the Northwest as the main drivers of insecurity.

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Households in the North-East affected by Boko Haram and ISWAP attacks recorded between eight and 14 per cent lower expenditure per adult equivalent when violent incidents occurred within two years before the survey.

The findings, presented at a high-level webinar in Abuja, revealed significant economic impacts. Households in the Northeast affected by Boko Haram and ISWAP attacks experienced between 8% and 14% lower expenditure per adult equivalent when violent incidents occurred within two years of the survey. Conflict-related debt accumulated since 2009 further contributed to an 8% to 13% loss in expenditure.

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Conflict-related debt accumulated since 2009 was also associated with an additional expenditure loss of between eight and 13 per cent.

In the North-Central zone, farmer-herder clashes had the most severe impact on near-poor households, causing a 14% drop in expenditure. Banditry and kidnapping in the Northwest were linked to expenditure losses ranging from 4% to 11%, particularly affecting moderately poor households. These findings have critical implications for the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Reduction's policies.

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Farmer-herder clashes had the most severe impact on near-poor households in the North-Central zone, resulting in a 14 per cent drop in expenditure at the 60th percentile, the largest single welfare effect recorded in the study.

Despite these challenges, the report identifies livelihood diversification, combining farming, non-farming, and enterprise-based income-generating activities, as the most effective strategy for building resilience and escaping chronic poverty. However, the study notes that only 13% of household heads in Northern Nigeria are currently pursuing diversified income opportunities. Education is also found to strengthen households' ability to diversify income sources, though its benefits remain limited.

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In the North-West, banditry and kidnapping were linked to expenditure losses ranging from four to 11 per cent, particularly among moderately poor households.