Bolsonaro narrows gap with Lula in eventual second round, poll shows

Flávio Bolsonaro has gained ground on Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a potential second-round presidential election in Brazil, a new poll indicates. The survey by Quaest shows Bolsonaro capturing 40% of voter intentions compared to Lula's 43% in a hypothetical runoff. This represents a slight improvement for Bolsonaro from early August, when this same pollster recorded him at 39% against Lula's 44%.

The narrowing gap between the two candidates contrasts with earlier figures. In July, the same pollster found Lula leading Bolsonaro 45% to 37% in a second-round scenario. In the first round, Lula currently holds a lead with 38% of the vote, while Bolsonaro garners 31%. Far-right candidate Renan Santos and conservative Ronaldo Caiado trail behind, each with 4%.

Bolsonaro's improved metrics coincide with a diminished media focus on a controversy linking him to banker Daniel Vorcaro, who is currently imprisoned for fraud. The case gained prominence in May after leaked conversations suggested Bolsonaro requested a substantial sum from Vorcaro to fund a film about his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro.

In a personal and political move, Flávio Bolsonaro has recently reconnected with his stepmother, former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro, after months of estrangement. The two appeared together this week at a Liberal Party meeting. These developments occur less than two months before the October 4 presidential election and just two days before the official start of the campaign period.