Brazil on edge as Lula and Bolsonaro tie at 41% in runoff poll

Brazil’s presidential race has tightened sharply. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro each drew 41% in a possible second-round matchup, according to a new Quaest poll.

It was the first numerical tie between the two since March. In the previous poll, released on Sept. 2, Lula held a one-point advantage, 42% to 41%, which still amounted to a technical tie within the two-point margin of error. The latest result removes even that narrow difference and reinforces a trend seen in recent polling.

The survey drew on 2,004 interviews with Brazilians aged over 16, conducted from Sept. 3 to 6. The interviews coincided with a crisis at the Supreme Court over suspicions involving Justice Alexandre de Moraes and his alleged closeness to a banker jailed for fraud.

There was little change in the first-round race, set for Oct. 4. Lula held a seven-point lead with 36%, against 29% for Flávio Bolsonaro. Writer Augusto Cury, a political newcomer running for the centrist Avante party, stood at 8%. Former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado and far-right activist Renan Santos each had 3%, while former Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema had 2%.

Left-wing candidate Samara Martins and businessman and influencer Pablo Marçal each received 1%. Marçal’s candidacy could be annulled by the courts because he is ineligible. Nine percent of respondents were undecided, while 8% said they would cast a blank or invalid ballot or would not vote, despite Brazil’s compulsory voting system.