Bulgaria faces demographic paradox: high fertility but declining population

Bulgaria is experiencing a striking demographic paradox: despite boasting one of the European Union's highest fertility rates, the nation's population continues to shrink. This decline is driven by a high death rate, which nearly doubles the number of births, coupled with an aging population and a reduction in the number of women of childbearing age.

Official data reveals a significant drop in births, with a 6.6% decrease in 2024 and a further 6% in 2025. The fertility rate has also declined, falling from 1.79 children per woman in 2023 to an estimated 1.63 by 2025. While Bulgaria ranked first in the EU for fertility in the latest comparative rankings, this reflects its relatively high starting point rather than an improved demographic trend, according to Euractiv.

In 2025, Bulgaria registered approximately 50,241 births against 99,479 deaths, meaning nearly two people died for every child born. This situation is compounded by a shrinking pool of potential parents, with the number of women of childbearing age decreasing by about 11,000 from the previous year to approximately 1.25 million. Furthermore, Bulgaria's life expectancy stands at 75.8 years, significantly lower than the EU average of 81.5 years.

Krassen Stanchev, founder of the Institute for Market Economics, identifies avoidable mortality as a primary concern. He argues that implementing medical reforms focused on prevention could significantly improve life expectancy without insurmountable economic costs. The demographic challenges are not uniform across Bulgaria; for instance, the Sliven region shows a fertility rate of 2.43 children per woman and a lower average age for first-time mothers compared to Sofia, where the average age is 30.8. Significant regional differences also exist in life expectancy, with several northern regions having some of the lowest values in Europe.

“

The main cause of shorter life expectancy in Bulgaria is failures in combating avoidable mortality.