Burning the boats in Morocco

Pedro Sánchez faces a political problem that may be harder to manage than the crisis itself: much of Spain no longer believes his explanation of what happened in Ceuta. A majority of the public, including Sánchez’s own voters, and politicians across the parliamentary spectrum have concluded that Morocco was responsible for the mass assault.

The prime minister continues to urge caution. He says there is no evidence that directly implicates Rabat, while both the right and the left point to the neighboring country’s responsibility. For Sánchez, openly accusing Morocco would carry serious consequences. It could threaten cooperation on migration and counterterrorism with a country that serves as Spain’s gateway to a continent marked by poverty and the jihadist flashpoint of the Sahel.

Such a rupture would also undo the path Spain has followed since 2022. Sánchez dismissed Foreign Minister Arancha González Laya at Rabat’s request after Spain allowed an ill COVID-19 patient who led the Polisario Front to receive treatment there. Since then, Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares has built a close relationship with his Moroccan counterpart. That trust now shapes Sánchez’s cautious position.

Moroccan authorities initially conveyed confusion to the Spanish government on the day of the assault. After Spain complained, Rabat rebuked Madrid for expecting Morocco to suppress its own population to spare Spanish security forces. Morocco then quickly offered to accept the migrants returned immediately. The episode also appears to have harmed Morocco’s authorities, since more than 140 of their own citizens died while trying to leave the country on the same day King Mohammed VI delivered a speech on Morocco’s modernization.

Sánchez says no intelligence service has evidence to identify Rabat. A police report published this week points to indications in social-media videos but acknowledges “diffuse responsibility.” The government says documents to be declassified on Tuesday will confirm the difficulty of assigning conclusive blame. Yet previous incidents point the other way, and many people find it implausible that Morocco’s security forces and intelligence services failed to detect the movement of 80,000 people in the hours before the assault.