By 2050, the population of Central Asia will exceed 100 million. What awaits us?

Tajikistan is experiencing a population boom, with its numbers expected to double by 2050 to 14.5 million, contributing to a projected Central Asian population exceeding 100 million. This rapid growth is viewed by the government as a significant "demographic window of opportunity." The National Development Strategy for 2030 anticipates that an expanding working-age population, which already constitutes about 60% of citizens, will accelerate economic growth and improve overall well-being.

However, this demographic surge presents challenges. Productivity in key sectors like industry, construction, and agriculture has not kept pace, leading to a decrease in arable land per capita, which has fallen to approximately 0.6 hectares and is forecast to drop further. This raises questions about the economy's capacity to sustain the growing population, especially given limited land and water resources.

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The projected increase in the working-age population in the republic will provide opportunities to accelerate economic growth.

While some foreign experts warn of potential mass unemployment and resource scarcity, local specialists maintain a more optimistic stance. Orif Khojazoda, Chairman of the State Committee for Land Management and Geodesy, has stated that Tajikistan's land is capable of feeding up to 50 million people, provided resources are managed rationally. This contrasts sharply with projections that arable land per capita could shrink to just 0.05 hectares by 2027, underscoring the critical need for efficient resource utilization and economic strategies to harness the demographic dividend.

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Tajikistan’s land is capable of providing food for 50 million people.