Cabinet’s nitrogen measures not enough to fully unlock the Netherlands, planning bureau says

The Netherlands will not fully escape its nitrogen restrictions under the cabinet’s current plans, even if every measure succeeds, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency says. The agency calculated that the livestock herd would still need to shrink by 5% to 10% to meet the country’s 2035 nitrogen targets.

The cabinet’s package would shift the focus from nitrogen deposition to emissions. Each farm would receive an emissions ceiling, while farmers would get a set number of animals per hectare. The government also wants to encourage major sustainability investments, relocations and voluntary closures.

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within reach

Together, the measures aim to cut ammonia emissions by 42% to 46% from 2019 levels by 2035. The cabinet plans to establish a 20 billion euro nitrogen fund through 2035, with about half earmarked for reducing the intensity of agriculture in zones around nitrogen-sensitive Natura 2000 sites. Emissions in those zones could need to fall by as much as 60%, although the final percentage has not been set.

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an important step

The agency said the measures would require major sacrifices from farmers. Cheaper sustainability options would no longer be enough, and some farmers in livestock-heavy regions might not be able to continue operating. Only 14 of the 120 vulnerable nature areas would fall below the critical deposition threshold by 2035. Still, the excess would decline sharply in all those areas, allowing nature to recover in some places.

The calculation assumes that every farmer cooperates fully, achieves the promised reductions, and that the government implements all measures without setbacks. The agency described it as an “if-then scenario,” challenging the cabinet’s claim that the Netherlands can be fully unlocked if the package is implemented.

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if-then scenario