Can Africa Reinvent Mediation Before Its Wars Outrun Diplomacy?

African diplomacy is grappling with a fundamental question: how to reinvent mediation as its current models struggle to keep pace with the changing nature of conflict. Former presidents, mediators, and international peace practitioners increasingly argue that the continent's mediation architecture requires significant reform to remain relevant.

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The current templates that have been guiding us in mediation were a product of a certain period--a certain hegemony period. You can call it the liberal order, or liberal principles, whatever. They were incubated during this period. But the interesting thing is that in Africa they were creatively applied over a period of time. That time may have come to an end.

The core issue, according to former Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, lies in outdated assumptions inherited from a past era. He suggests that the templates guiding mediation were products of a specific historical period, possibly linked to a "hegemony period" or "liberal order," which, while creatively applied in Africa, may no longer be effective.

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There is a conflict. We know what to do. We are trained to do A, B, C, D. Stop the war. Security arrangements. Then you move into wealth sharing, power sharing and, if the war has been so terrible, you include transitional justice as part of the template. Since inclusivity becomes a permanent challenge, you move to national dialogue.

Hamdok explained that traditional mediation often followed a predictable script: stop the war, establish security arrangements, move to wealth and power sharing, incorporate transitional justice, and then facilitate national dialogue. While these approaches helped resolve many past conflicts, he contends that modern wars have rendered them obsolete, necessitating a discussion on the nature of current conflicts and how to respond.

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All of these were templates that were creatively applied through this period. Now this period may have come to an end because war has made them obsolete. That is why we need to discuss the nature of the wars that are taking place and how we are going to respond. Maybe there are certain templates that need to be rescued, but we have reached the end of the line.

Echoing this sentiment, former UN Under-Secretary-General Martin Griffiths noted a shift in the purpose of negotiations themselves. While transactional bargaining has always been present, he cautioned against assuming it's entirely new. Griffiths highlighted that in the past, such transactions occurred within the framework of a larger, politically defined outcome for the mediation, serving a broader political objective that may now be absent or altered.

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Transaction has always been there. We practised it in Sudan. We listened to transactional requests, and we responded to them. But these transactions were taking place under the rubric of a politically defined outcome to the mediation.