Can Asia's security survive without the U.S.? Allies ponder 'Plan B'

The question of East Asian security in a post-Trump era, particularly without a strong U.S. commitment, was a central theme at the Jeju Forum. Discussions revolved around "Plan B" scenarios for regional stability, with differing views emerging from key figures representing Japan and Australia.

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In East Asia, Plan B is impossible, and the United States is indispensable for East Asian security.

Taro Kono, a former Japanese Foreign Minister and Defense Minister, asserted that a security "Plan B" independent of the United States is unfeasible in East Asia. He stressed the indispensable role of the U.S. in regional security and proposed an "A+ Plan" that strengthens security cooperation with Europe, potentially leading to a "NAPTO" (NATO + Pacific) alliance. Kono also called for enhanced security collaboration between Japan and South Korea, beyond economic ties, to ensure regional stability.

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Middle powers... have a responsibility to restore the previous order.

In contrast, Gareth Evans, former Australian Foreign Minister, emphasized the need for middle powers to take greater responsibility in restoring the post-Cold War order, which he believes has been eroded by U.S. actions like the Iraq invasion and trade wars. Evans suggested that countries like South Korea, Japan, Australia, and Indonesia should collaborate on multilateral alternatives, rather than solely relying on U.S. alliances, while still maintaining strategic ties for intelligence and technology.

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The United States' deterrence has become less consistent and reliable than in the past.

The discussion also touched upon approaches to China and North Korea. Kono acknowledged the deep economic ties between Japan, South Korea, and China, advocating for continued engagement while maintaining vigilance. Evans, however, suggested a more rational approach to China's rise, seeing it as a potential start to détente. Regarding North Korea's nuclear program, Evans expressed skepticism about complete denuclearization, favoring risk reduction and arms reduction talks, and proposed that South Korea and Japan, alongside China, should bolster deterrence due to diminished U.S. consistency.

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It has become more realistic and productive to discuss reducing risks and cutting nuclear weapons rather than complete denuclearization.