Can Donald Trump find another easy victory?

Donald Trump has experienced the potent allure of "easy victory," most notably demonstrated by the swift military operation in Venezuela on January 3, 2026. In a move that unfolded while much of the world slept, American forces captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, transporting them to the United States and effectively ending Maduro's governance.

Following the capture, the U.S. announced its intention to oversee Venezuela's political transition and asserted significant control over the nation's oil economy. Trump detailed arrangements for selling Venezuelan oil, with proceeds managed by American authorities. This operation, devoid of prolonged occupation or widespread insurgency, presented a powerful image of decisive American action.

“

For Donald Trump, Venezuela offered something even more intoxicating than oil. It offered the image of victory. And victory is dangerous when it teaches the wrong lesson.

However, the perceived ease of the Venezuela operation may offer a dangerous lesson. Trump's subsequent engagement with Iran was intended as another demonstration of overwhelming American power, with initial rhetoric suggesting a quick, decisive outcome. Figures like Pete Hegseth assured Americans that the operation would not be an "endless" quagmire like Iraq.

“

This is not Iraq. This is not endless.

Despite initial pronouncements of "overwhelming" and "decisive military victory," including the reported deaths of senior Iranian leaders and significant damage to military installations, Iran's response proved more complex. The strategic geography of the Strait of Hormuz emerged as a critical factor, demonstrating that traditional military might could be countered by control over vital waterways.

The article questions whether Donald Trump can achieve another "desperately needed victory," particularly in the context of Iran. It raises the possibility that economic sanctions might be the tool pursued, but the strategic importance of chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz suggests that such a victory may not be as straightforward as the one in Venezuela.

“

A narrow stretch of water became more strategically powerful than aircraft carriers, cruise missiles, and presidential speeches.