Can Harry Kane Defy History to Win the Ballon d'Or?

Harry Kane heads into this year's Ballon d'Or race as the bookmakers' favorite, but history offers him little encouragement. The England captain enjoyed a prolific season for club and country, yet football's biggest individual prize has rarely been decided by goals alone.

Since the award began in 1956, performances in the game's biggest competitions have repeatedly shaped the result. World Cup years have produced the clearest pattern. Players such as Bobby Charlton, Paolo Rossi, Lothar Matthaus, Zinedine Zidane, Ronaldo and Fabio Cannavaro all won the Ballon d'Or after lifting the World Cup.

The pattern extends beyond the official winners. Johan Cruyff won after leading the Netherlands to the 1974 World Cup final, while Luka Modric did the same with Croatia in 2018. France Football's later reviews also argued that Pele would have won in 1962 and 1970, and that Garrincha deserved the award in 1962 after Brazil won consecutive World Cups.

World Cup success has not been an absolute requirement. Kevin Keegan won in 1978 even though England failed to qualify, but France Football later judged Argentina's Mario Kempes the more deserving winner after he led the hosts to the title and finished as the tournament's top scorer. The publication reached similar conclusions about Diego Maradona in 1986.

The shortlist is due to be announced on Tuesday. An international jury of specialist journalists will then vote, with one representative from each of the men's top 100 countries. Kane, who has never finished higher than 10th, is seeking to become one of the rare exceptions to the award's long-established pattern.