Can Victoria's Liberals topple Labor government at state election?

With the Victorian state election less than 100 days away, the Liberal and National parties are eyeing a potential return to power after 12 years in opposition. Current polling suggests the Coalition could be in a position to unseat the incumbent Labor government on November 28.

However, the landscape is complicated by the potential influence of One Nation, a factor that could significantly alter the election's dynamics. The Coalition needs to secure 45 seats in the lower house to govern, a challenging task that requires holding all its current 29 seats and winning at least 16 more. The possibility of a minority government, where no single party achieves a majority, is also considered a genuine prospect.

Labor, after three terms in government, faces significant risks across various regions. The party is particularly vulnerable in Melbourne's western and north-western suburbs, traditional heartlands where its first-preference votes declined significantly in the last election. New Premier Ben Carroll has made crime a central focus of his leadership in an effort to win back these voters. Even his own seat of Niddrie, held with a modest margin, is reportedly a target for the Coalition.

In Melbourne's eastern suburbs, the Coalition must regain ground to have a realistic chance of forming government, according to pollster Kos Samaras. Seats like Bayswater, Ashwood, Glen Waverley, Box Hill, and Pakenham are identified as crucial battlegrounds. Labor anticipates losing Pakenham, located on the city's fringes, where the Victorian One Nation leader is contesting the seat.

The Greens are also posing a challenge to Labor in inner-city electorates. The overall mood among voters, after Labor's extended period in power, suggests a potential desire for change, making the upcoming election a critical juncture for both major parties and the emerging influence of One Nation.