Can you beat our prediction? Play World Cup forecasting with EL PAÍS

EL PAÍS has launched an interactive tool allowing readers to engage with its statistical model for predicting the upcoming World Cup. The model, designed to forecast tournament outcomes, provides probabilities for each national team's chances of winning and progressing through the competition.

According to the model, Spain is considered the favorite, although its probability of winning is estimated at only 1 in 6. Readers are invited to test the model's accuracy by making their own predictions through a provided form. They can then compare their forecasts against the model's latest projections, which are updated daily based on match results.

The methodology behind EL PAÍS's model is detailed in a separate tracker piece, where readers can also find the probabilities and potential paths for all 48 participating teams. The model simulates the tournament thousands of times to calculate the likelihood of various events, ensuring its predictions are dynamic and responsive to real-time developments.

As the tournament progresses, the probabilities for teams like Spain and Argentina, along with others, will continuously shift. These changes will be influenced by every match result, player injuries, and other unforeseen factors. EL PAÍS commits to updating these predictions daily, offering readers a constantly evolving view of the World Cup landscape.