Cattle Farming Enters a New Cycle with a Profoundly Different Structure

Argentina’s cattle industry appears to have entered a new cycle, but it is doing so with far fewer producers and a much greater concentration of animals in large establishments.

Agricultural censuses show that about 40% of farms disappeared between 1988 and 2018. The population living on those farms fell 52%, while the number of producers who lived at their establishments dropped 60%. The rural exodus cannot be explained by production concentration alone. Poor infrastructure and limited access to roads, education, health care and connectivity also accelerated the departure of residents.

The trend continued. According to Senasa, the number of establishments with cattle declined from 236,805 in 2012 to 186,301 in 2025, a 21.3% fall. Over the same period, the average herd increased from 220 to 273 head, or 24%. Establishments with more than 1,000 head represented only 5.5% of all establishments in 2025, but held about 42% of the cattle.

This transformation appears to have changed how the cattle cycle unfolds. Between 2007 and 2010, the national herd fell 16.9% in just three years, accompanied by a sharp disappearance of producers and farms. Between 2018 and 2025, the herd fell 7.4% over seven years, making the more recent liquidation slower and less intense. The greater concentration of cattle in larger operations may have given producers more capacity to withstand difficult periods without mass liquidation.

Trade policy also played a role, though it did not explain the cycle on its own. The 2006 export closure coincided with the major 2007-2010 liquidation, while the removal of export restrictions and duties in 2015 accompanied a retention phase and a rise in exports from 155,000 tonnes in 2015 to 845,000 in 2019. The liquidation that began in 2018 was already under way when partial export restrictions returned in 2021. Prices, productive structure and financial capacity helped determine the cycle’s intensity and duration.

The indicators suggest liquidation ended around 2025 and that 2026 marks the beginning of retention. Favorable relative prices for breeding, higher values for breeding cows, heavier slaughter weights, lower slaughter levels and strong feedlot occupancy all point in the same direction.