Chang Ching-sen runs the numbers on a Hualien upset: “The political tide really could turn”

With Taiwan’s nine-in-one elections less than three months away, the Hualien county magistrate race is intensifying. Former Executive Yuan official Chang Ching-sen says the numbers now point to a real possibility of an upset.

Chang presented his argument after spending three days in Hualien for a dragon boat race and speaking with people from different backgrounds. Many asked whether Fu Kun-chi’s political faction could finally be defeated. He said he then compared recent election figures and began to see a path for the opposition.

The Fu family’s political strength may have peaked in 2022, Chang argued. That year, Hsu Chen-wei won re-election with 96,645 votes, or 64.73 percent. Fu later won a legislative seat in 2024 with 68,786 votes, or 53.79 percent. In the 2025 recall campaign, 65,300 voters opposed recalling Fu.

Chang cautioned that the three elections had different characteristics, but said two intense political mobilizations since 2022 had shown the Fu camp drawing roughly 60,000 votes. That total may no longer be enough in a three-way contest involving Yu Shu-chen, Chang Chun and Wei Chia-hsien. All three have pan-blue backgrounds and can draw from the traditional blue camp.

Wei, Chang said, could be especially important. If he took 15 percent of a 65,000-vote Fu base, nearly 10,000 votes, the faction would fall into the 50,000 range. The remaining contest would turn on 48,969 anti-Fu votes from the recall campaign and centrist voters who might make a strategic choice late in the election. Chang believes Chang Chun is currently most likely to benefit from that consolidation. As he put it, “Does the political tide really seem ready to turn in Hualien this time?”

“

Does the political tide really seem ready to turn in Hualien this time?