China closing gap with US in satellite tech, could surpass: US think tank

China is rapidly narrowing the gap with the United States in crucial space capabilities, including satellite reconnaissance and the ability to intercept satellites, according to a report by the US think tank, the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF).

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The US must take decisive action soon, or China will take the lead in the global space economy.

The report, detailed by the South China Morning Post, indicates that China's robust state backing has fueled a fast-growing commercial space industry, significantly closing the innovation gap with the US. Analysts predict that if decisive action is not taken swiftly by the US, China could secure the top position in the global space economy within the next decade, a market expected to exceed $1 trillion in the coming 10 years.

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China's space industry has moved from a slow-growing, state-led sector to an innovative and powerful commercial industry, second only to the United States in global market size.

Elise Shull, a space policy analyst at ITIF and the report's author, noted that China's space industry has transformed from a slow-growing, state-dominated sector into an innovative and powerful commercial force, second only to the US in global market size. She emphasized the dual-use nature of commercial space technology, which is vital for military applications such as positioning, navigation, timing, remote sensing, and satellite interception.

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Most commercial space technologies are also military-enabled, and the military relies heavily on position, navigation, and timing, remote sensing, low-earth orbit broadband communications, and satellite interception.

Out of six key space sectors evaluated, the US retains a clear lead only in low-earth orbit broadband networks, with SpaceX's Starlink and Amazon's Kuiper projects holding an advantage over China's planned networks. However, China is leading in positioning, navigation, and timing services through its global expansion of the BeiDou navigation system. The report also assesses China as having an edge in remote sensing and satellite imagery, and in space response capabilities, including satellite interception technology. While the US maintains an advantage in reusable launch vehicles like SpaceX's Falcon 9, China is rapidly developing and expanding its Tiangong space station, intensifying competition in this area.

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China has made significant progress in developing satellites capable of performing aerial combat maneuvers in orbit, which could be used to attack satellites owned by other countries.