China direct strike threat to Australia ‘growing’: Report

China's increasing military capabilities pose a growing threat of direct missile strikes on Australia, according to a June 14 report by the Lowy Institute. Beijing's rapid expansion of long-range and hypersonic weapons, coupled with its island-building activities in the South China Sea, significantly enhances its capacity to target Australia.

The think tank's analysis indicates that Australia faces a tangible threat from Chinese missiles launched from naval vessels, submarines, and the new DF-27 intermediate-range ballistic missile, which has a range of 5,000 to 8,000 kilometers. The report projects that this threat will escalate over the next decade as China increases its deployment of such advanced weaponry.

Sam Roggeveen, director of the Lowy Institute's International Security Program, described the report as balanced, neither alarmist nor complacent. He emphasized that the People's Liberation Army's growth represents the most significant shift in Australian security since the Soviet Union's collapse, underscoring an urgent need for a more informed national conversation.

While the Australian government has been cautious about discussing direct attack scenarios, the report asserts that the threat is real and escalating. Beyond direct strikes, China's potential to disrupt undersea communication cables, conduct cyber attacks, and interdict maritime trade are primary risks. However, the direct missile threat, particularly if China deploys bombers or missiles on nearby Pacific islands, could dramatically increase Australia's vulnerability.

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I think the growth of the People’s Liberation Army is the most important thing to happen to Australian security since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and there is a pressing need for a more informed Australian discussion about it.