China's Nuclear Show May Spur Indo-Pacific Security Cooperation, Foreign Media Say

China's recent test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile in the Pacific has sparked significant concern among nations in the Indo-Pacific region. The rare test, conducted by a nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, was seen as a demonstration of China's sea-based nuclear deterrence capabilities.

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China's rapid military modernization, including its nuclear arsenal, is pushing U.S. allies in Asia closer together, rather than weakening their security cooperation.

However, foreign media analysis suggests this display of military might could backfire. Instead of weakening security cooperation among its neighbors, the test is likely to accelerate it. Experts like Ely Ratner, former Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, noted that China's rapid military modernization, including its nuclear arsenal, is pushing U.S. allies in Asia closer together.

Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group, believes Beijing's primary goal was to verify its "second-strike capability." This move is expected to lead countries such as Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and the Philippines to expand joint exercises, arms sales cooperation, and defense budgets. China has been building a "nuclear triad" of land-based, sea-based, and air-based strategic nuclear forces to enhance its deterrence. Chinese state media, citing military experts, suggested the missile tested might have been the "Julang-3" (JL-3), though official sources have not confirmed the missile type, launch submarine, or impact location.

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Beijing's test this time is mainly to verify its sea-based 'second-strike capability.' Countries like Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and the Philippines may continue to expand joint exercises, arms sales cooperation, and defense spending in the future.

The test has already prompted concern from Australia, New Zealand, and the United States, further deepening Indo-Pacific security cooperation. Australia and Fiji recently signed a defense treaty, while Vanuatu agreed not to host foreign military bases. The Solomon Islands are also reviewing their security agreement with China and negotiating new arrangements with Australia. Professor John Blaxland of the Australian National University commented that China's military display might encourage more Pacific island nations to prioritize security cooperation with like-minded countries such as Australia, reinforcing regional security architecture.

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China's military display may lead more Pacific island nations to attach greater importance to security cooperation with like-minded countries such as Australia, and continue to strengthen the regional security cooperation layout.