China's strike capacity over Australia set to expand, think tank says

China's military capabilities to strike Australia are expected to grow substantially in the coming decade, with immediate threats likely to manifest through cyberattacks and the severing of undersea communication cables, a report by the Lowy Institute think tank stated Monday.

The Sydney-based institute warned that the development of a new long-range stealth bomber, coupled with the potential deployment of missiles and aircraft to bases closer to Australia, could "quickly and dramatically" escalate the long-term threat. The report noted that China has actively sought basing arrangements in Pacific Island nations since at least 2018. Such a base could bring central Australia within bomber combat range and enable more frequent attacks.

In the near term, China possesses robust capabilities to disrupt Australia's maritime trade by targeting chokepoints within the Indonesian archipelago, even without conventional weapons. The report also indicated that China can already target northern Australia with missiles launched from its South China Sea outposts.

The Chinese embassy in Australia had not immediately responded to a request for comment regarding the report's findings. China is Australia's largest trading partner, accounting for approximately one-third of Australia's exports. Diplomatic relations, which had deteriorated significantly after 2018 leading to Beijing imposing sanctions on Australian exports, have seen some improvement since the Labor government came to power in 2022.

Despite the recent improvement in ties, Australia remains vigilant about China's expanding influence in the Pacific. Canberra continues to pursue security agreements with Pacific nations to counter any potential permanent military presence by Beijing in the region. The southern Pacific has historically been considered within the sphere of influence of Australia and its ally, the United States. The Lowy Institute emphasized that China's military buildup is fundamentally reshaping the Indo-Pacific balance of power, impacting Australian security irrespective of its direct strike capability on Australian territory.