China sees North Korea's nukes as asset amid US-Iran conflict, says ex-minister

Following the United States' war with Iran, China increasingly perceives North Korea's nuclear capabilities as a strategic asset rather than a liability in its bid to expand influence in East Asia, according to a former South Korean foreign minister. This shift in perspective makes the prospect of North Korea's denuclearization even more distant.

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As China benefits from the US’ loss of international credibility after the Iran war, it’s pushing countries in the Asia-Pacific region to kiss the ring.

Song Min-soon, who served as South Korea's minister of foreign affairs and trade from 2006 to 2008, articulated this view at a symposium discussing the geopolitical implications of the Iran war. He predicted that the U.S. might adopt a less interventionist foreign policy, drawing parallels to its post-Vietnam War stance, amid the likely consolidation of American and Chinese spheres of influence.

Song highlighted China's growing assertiveness, citing President Xi Jinping's strong rhetoric on Taiwan during a summit with then-U.S. President Trump and his recent visit to North Korea, which confirmed China's sphere of influence in Northeast Asia. He observed the emergence of distinct military blocs: one involving South Korea, the U.S., and Japan, and another comprising North Korea, China, and Russia. In this context, Beijing views Pyongyang's nuclear weapons as a valuable counterweight to Washington's influence.

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Beijing considers Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities an 'asset, not a burden' for countering Washington.

The former minister noted that references to a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula are increasingly absent from China's strategic documents and bilateral discussions with North Korea. He added that the heightened tensions following the Iran conflict have made denuclearization talks virtually impossible, further diminishing the likelihood of meaningful dialogue between North Korea and the U.S.

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The prospect of meaningful North Korea-US dialogue has grown even slimmer, and Washington finds it more difficult to justify such talks due to the war with Iran.

Addressing Seoul's strategy, Song emphasized the need for de-escalation and crisis management to ensure military stability on the peninsula. However, he cautioned against pursuing 'peaceful coexistence' through exchange and cooperation at this juncture, deeming it unrealistic. Instead, he proposed maintaining a 'cold peace' based on non-interference and non-intimidation, coupled with a robust deterrence capacity. A 'warm peace,' he suggested, could only be expected once significant changes occur within North Korea.

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maintaining a ‘negative [cold] peace’ for now based on non-interference and non-intimidation while maintaining a robust capacity to deter threats and provocations, and to expect a ‘positive [warm] peace’ through exchange and cooperation only when changes occur within North Korea.