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China submarine launch signals growing threat across western Pacific - analysis

From Jerusalem Post · () English

Summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

Analysis Named sources Context piece
  • China's recent submarine-launched ballistic missile test in the southern Pacific allowed its military to assess complex nuclear deterrent operations, according to analysts.
  • The test, involving a dummy warhead, drew criticism from regional powers, though China maintained it was a routine drill safeguarding national security and global stability.
  • The operation highlights China's progress toward an operational strike capability, potentially targeting Guam and Hawaii, and underscores the growing importance of its submarine forces in its nuclear strategy.

China's recent test of a submarine-fired ballistic missile into the southern Pacific provided its military leadership an opportunity to evaluate critical aspects of its evolving nuclear deterrent, analysts and diplomats suggest. The exercise focused on the immense challenges of commanding, controlling, and communicating with nuclear-armed submarines operating undetected, a crucial element for a Chinese Communist Party leadership prioritizing military loyalty.

This aspect is certainly something that would have been very much evaluated, besides looking at the actual technical capabilities of the missile and submarine.

— Collin KohA security scholar at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, commenting on the importance of command and control in the missile test.

Collin Koh, a security scholar at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, noted that beyond technical capabilities, the command and control aspects would have been heavily scrutinized. He indicated that China is nearing an operational strike capability, potentially capable of targeting Guam and Hawaii even if it cannot reach the continental United States.

There are still challenges ahead but it would seem they are getting close to an operational strike capability here...they are probably trying to demonstrate that even if they can't get into a position to hit the continental US, they could still target Guam and Hawaii.

— Collin KohAssessing China's progress toward operational strike capability following the missile test.

The missile, launched from a Type-094 nuclear-powered submarine, was armed with a dummy warhead. While Chinese state media and officials characterized the test as a "routine" military drill not aimed at any specific country, regional powers, including the US, expressed criticism. The US identified it as an intercontinental ballistic missile. China's defense ministry responded to Reuters, dismissing some reports as "pure distortion and hype" and stating the test complied with international law and practice.

It should be emphasized that China's efforts to modernize its nuclear forces are intended to safeguard national strategic security and maintain global strategic stability.

— Chinese defense ministryResponding to questions about the purpose of China's nuclear force modernization.

The ministry emphasized that China's nuclear force modernization aims to protect national strategic security and maintain global strategic stability. This test represents China's most significant long-range ballistic missile launch since September 2024. Analysts consider China's submarine-launched ballistic missile (SSBN) operations, based out of Hainan Island, to be among the most closely watched elements of its military modernization, vital for ensuring a second-strike nuclear capability.

Dismissing some reports as 'pure distortion and hype,' the Chinese defense ministry said in response to Reuters' questions on Friday that the test was made in accordance with international law and practice.

— Chinese defense ministryResponding to criticism and reports about the missile test.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by Jerusalem Post. Summarized and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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