Chinese Foreign Minister's Visit to Seoul May Boost Peace Talks for Korean Peninsula

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is anticipated to visit South Korea soon, a trip that could provide momentum for President Lee Jae-myung's proposal for multilateral talks aimed at establishing a lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula. The visit, expected to include meetings with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun and President Lee, marks Wang's first trip to Seoul in approximately five years.

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We will embark on a journey to end the war and transform the unstable armistice regime on the Korean Peninsula into a peace regime. Let us begin discussions among the parties involved to end a very old war. Through this, effective measures to halt North Korea's nuclear capability enhancement can also be discussed.

A key focus of the discussions is likely to be China's role in facilitating dialogue with North Korea. President Lee, in his recent Liberation Day address, called for an end to the Korean War and the transition from the current armistice regime to a peace regime. He proposed initiating discussions among the parties involved to halt North Korea's nuclear advancements. The South Korean government is expected to brief Minister Wang on President Lee's peace initiative and seek China's cooperation.

China maintains influence over North Korea, evidenced by recent high-level exchanges, including a meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin and subsequent visits by Chinese officials to Pyongyang. South Korea hopes to leverage this relationship, potentially proposing projects like railway or Tumen River development cooperation to persuade North Korea to engage in dialogue. One expert suggested that South Korea should also show consideration for China's sensitive issues, such as Taiwan and relations with Japan, in exchange for Beijing's support.

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China, while managing its strategic relationship with North Korea, must proactively propose agendas such as railway or Tumen River development cooperation that China can persuade North Korea with. On issues sensitive to China, such as Taiwan or relations with Japan, we also need to respect China's position and voice our opinions.

However, the prospects for significant breakthroughs remain uncertain. China harbors suspicions about the US-South Korea security cooperation, including nuclear submarine initiatives. Furthermore, North Korea has consistently emphasized its status as a nuclear-weapon state and has shown little willingness to engage in denuclearization talks. The current geopolitical climate, marked by US-China rivalry, also complicates matters. A professor noted that the likelihood of a four-party talk, for instance, is low given North Korea's adversarial stance towards South Korea and the broader US-China competition.

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Given that North Korea views South Korea antagonistically and the US and China are in a competitive phase, the realism of a four-party talk is low.