Chinese tourists cut overseas trips amid economic gloom

Chinese tourists are expected to undertake fewer overseas trips in the latter half of 2026 than initially projected, as a somber economic outlook dampens consumer confidence. China Trading Desk, a marketing and travel data firm, has revised its forecast for 2026, predicting approximately 179 million trips and US$258 billion in spending. Although this figure still surpasses pre-pandemic volumes, it represents a nearly 3% decrease from June estimates.

Subramania Bhatt, head of China Trading Desk, noted that Chinese consumers remain eager to travel but are becoming more discerning about the value of each trip. "Those who do travel are broadly maintaining their budgets; the weakness is in the number of trips," Bhatt explained. "That points to a consumer who is cautious rather than absent."

The slowdown in outbound travel is attributed to China's economic challenges, particularly a property slump, which is making consumers hesitant about discretionary spending. Additionally, disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict have impacted long-haul travel. In 2019, Chinese travelers made about 175 million outbound trips, spending approximately US$255 billion.

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Chinese consumers haven’t stopped wanting to travel, but they are becoming more selective about when a trip is worth taking. Those who do travel are broadly maintaining their budgets; the weakness is in the number of trips. That points to a consumer who is cautious rather than absent.

Geopolitical tensions and safety concerns are also influencing travel patterns. Chinese airlines have reduced capacity to Japan amid diplomatic friction, leading to an expected halving of visitors to the country in 2026. Thailand has also seen a decline in appeal due to publicized scams and safety issues. Consequently, closer destinations like Hong Kong and Macau are benefiting, projected to capture nearly 40% of the outbound market. However, average spending per visitor in Hong Kong is low, estimated at US$310. Long-haul destinations such as France attract fewer visitors but generate higher revenue per traveler, with an average spend of US$7,622.

South Korea has emerged as a major beneficiary of this shift, attracting an estimated 7 million visitors and nearly US$13 billion in spending, averaging US$1,815 per person. Despite the downward revision in overall forecasts, year-over-year growth in trip volumes remains positive at 7% above 2025 levels. Spending, while not keeping pace with volume, remains stable. "The recovery has slowed, but it hasn’t reversed," Bhatt concluded.

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The recovery has slowed, but it hasn’t reversed.