Chris Sutton and AI predict World Cup quarter-final outcomes

As the World Cup enters its critical quarter-final stage, football pundit Chris Sutton and an AI prediction model are offering their forecasts on which teams will advance. Sutton, a BBC Sport football expert, demonstrated a strong track record in the previous round, correctly predicting all but one of the last 16 ties – Switzerland's penalty shootout victory over Colombia proved to be his sole miss.

The AI, developed using Microsoft Copilot Chat, also participated in the prediction game. When asked to predict the results of the quarter-final matches, the AI's output is generated based on its algorithms. Notably, both Sutton and the AI have achieved a 64% accuracy rate based on the 104 matches completed so far in the tournament.

However, users of the BBC's predictor game have outperformed both Sutton and the AI, boasting a 71% success rate. This suggests that collective human intuition, at least in this instance, has proven more accurate than individual expert analysis or artificial intelligence.

The quarter-final matchups include England against Norway and France versus Morocco. Sutton expressed his confidence in France, backing them to win the World Cup from the outset. He acknowledged Morocco's potential but highlighted their inconsistency, particularly their performance in the first half against Canada. The AI also predicted a 2-1 victory for France, aligning with Sutton's choice, though Sutton emphasized his reliance on insight rather than algorithms. The AI, in response to Sutton's critique, stated its objective is accuracy, not surprise.

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The aim isn't to be surprising, Chris. The aim is to be right.