Climate change and El Niño could form 'dangerous double act'

Australia is preparing for an active El Niño event, with the Bureau of Meteorology officially declaring its presence. This weather pattern is characterized by warmer-than-usual waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and typically leads to hotter and drier conditions across much of the country. This is the first El Niño declaration in nearly three years. While modeling suggests this El Niño could be one of the strongest on record, its specific impacts on Australia's temperature and rainfall remain subject to increasing uncertainty due to climate change. Global temperatures have already risen by approximately 1.5 degrees Celsius, amplifying the risks associated with El Niño. Andrew Watkins, a climate councillor and adjunct professor at Monash University, explained that climate change has already increased the risk of heatwaves, fire weather, drought, and marine heatwaves. El Niño exacerbates these risks, further heightening the potential for extreme heat, drought, and coral bleaching. He described the combination as a "dangerous double act." While scientists can still predict the development of El Niño and its counterpart, La Niña, climate change is complicating the forecasting of their effects. UNSW climate scientist Andrea Taschetto noted that a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, which can alter the impact of El Niño compared to historical events. Future climate models project an intensification of both El Niño and La Niña, suggesting stronger impacts in the future. El Niño typically brings drier conditions to central and eastern Australia during winter and spring. The Bureau of Meteorology's forecast indicates below-average rainfall is likely from July to September. Above-average overnight temperatures are expected nationwide, with higher daytime temperatures anticipated across most of the country, excluding northern Australia.

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With climate change, we've already boosted the risk of heat and fire weather and drought and even marine heat waves and coral bleaching. El Niño adds to all of those, so increases the risk even further of having heat, drought, fire weather and coral bleaching as well. It's a dangerous double act when they come together.