Climate change made 'fire-prone' weather conditions more likely in Spain and France, scientists say

Human-caused climate change made the extreme weather conditions fueling devastating wildfires in southwestern France twice as likely, and those driving blazes in central Spain 20 times more likely, scientists reported Friday.

Wildfires have forced hundreds of thousands to evacuate and scorched vast areas of land in both countries. The World Weather Attribution group of scientists used historical weather data to assess how "fire-prone" conditions, hot, dry, and windy weather that makes fires difficult to suppress, have changed over time. Greenhouse gas emissions have raised the planet's average temperature by about 1.4 Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

In the current climate, fires of this intensity are now likely to occur once every 20 years in southwestern France and once every six years in central Spain, the analysis found. "We’ve seen repeatedly how climate change increases hot, dry, flammable conditions that are extremely conducive to wildfires," said Clair Barnes, a research associate in extreme weather at Imperial College London and co-author of the analysis. "What’s unique about this case is that it’s still early in the season - and with another heatwave looming, these findings are extremely scary."

The analysis also highlighted the growing importance of landscape management in reducing wildfire risk. A pattern of wet winters followed by dry springs and summers dries out vegetation, creating ample fuel for fires. Preventing future blazes requires not only rapid firefighting but also proactive measures like clearing forests of dead vegetation and implementing risk-sensitive landscape planning, the WWA stated. Spain experienced its wettest January in 25 years this year, followed by its hottest summer on record, while France is enduring its fourth heatwave of the year.

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We’ve seen repeatedly how climate change increases hot, dry, flammable conditions that are extremely conducive to wildfires. What’s unique about this case is that it’s still early in the season - and with another heatwave looming, these findings are extremely scary.