Coaches fired by clubs – but chance plays at least as big a role in breaking trends

While football clubs frequently resort to dismissing their coaches in hopes of reversing negative trends, a new study suggests this common practice may be largely ineffective. The research indicates that chance, or luck, plays a more significant role in a team's turnaround than a change in leadership.

Erik Lundkvist, an associate professor of psychology at Umeå University and one of the study's researchers, stated, "One can be sure that the coaching change does not have that much significance." The study analyzed data from the top five leagues in England, Spain, Germany, Italy, and France, along with their second divisions, across multiple seasons. It compared teams that sacked their coaches with those performing at a similar level but retaining their managers.

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You need to get better at trying to understand what the cause of the team losing is and not just look at whether you are losing or whether you are not getting enough points in a short time.

Researchers examined not only points accumulated but also "expected goals" (xG), a metric that measures the likelihood of a chance resulting in a goal. Lundkvist explained that football matches involve numerous events, many of which do not impact the final outcome. "There are studies showing that there are 7,000 events during a football match and then there are only two goals. So, it's quite a lot of chance, and that chance can last for quite a long time," he noted.

The findings challenge the conventional wisdom that a coaching change is a quick fix for underperforming teams. The study implies that clubs might be better served by diagnosing the underlying reasons for their struggles rather than relying on the potentially arbitrary effect of replacing the coach. This perspective aligns with previous discussions highlighting a lack of long-term vision in club management regarding leadership culture.

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There are studies showing that there are 7,000 events during a football match and then there are only two goals. So, it's quite a lot of chance, and that chance can last for quite a long time.