Coalition challenged by rise of One Nation in Victoria's east

The growing influence of the One Nation party is creating significant uncertainty for both the Labor government and the Coalition as Victoria heads towards its November election. In the eastern region of Gippsland, the party's surge is particularly pronounced, threatening to disrupt the political landscape.

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Living in the country, I don't know anyone that's going to vote Liberal or Labor anymore. They're wanting to vote One Nation and give 'em a go.

Jodie Hamill, a former pub owner in Sale, Victoria, expressed a common sentiment among rural and regional voters, stating, "I don't know anyone that's going to vote Liberal or Labor anymore. They're wanting to vote One Nation and give 'em a go." This feeling of disillusionment with the major parties is reportedly widespread, making the election particularly complex.

Published polling indicates that One Nation is capturing the attention of at least a quarter of Victorian voters. This trend poses a direct threat to four state seats in Gippsland currently held by the Nationals and the Liberals. Coalition insiders have identified the seat of Morwell as a key battleground, dubbing it "ground zero" for One Nation's campaign.

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I'm not cocky about it. It's just all the sentiment. Social media is the closest media to the people, and when you go through the comment section, the comment section never lies.

Ben Lucas, a Baw Baw Councillor and One Nation executive member, has set ambitious goals, expecting the party to win all four Gippsland seats and secure two positions in the upper house. He attributes this optimism to "all the sentiment" visible on social media, which he believes reflects the public mood accurately. Despite One Nation not yet announcing any Victorian candidates, Lucas is a potential contender and points to the party's success in South Australia with a "short sharp campaign" as a model for Victoria.

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Election fatigue is so real. Everyone's over it already. Everyone's just sick of being bullshitted to … [South Australia] was a real effective short sharp campaign, and I reckon we'll do the same thing.

Political strategists note that One Nation's appeal may not hinge on specific policies. Kosmos Samaras, a former Labor official and pollster, suggests the party's "brand" represents a vehicle for Victorians to express their dissatisfaction with the established two-party system. The economic decline in Gippsland, attributed to the closure of coal mines, power plants, and timber mills, has likely fueled this sentiment, leaving voters seeking alternatives.

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Really it's about the brand and what it represents. And it represents a vehicle for these Victorians to really send a message that they are sick of the two-party system.