Cold war brewing in Syria as Druze, Kurds, and Alawites resist al-Sharaa's rule

Syria's new Sunni Islamist regime, led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa, is consolidating its rule following the January destruction of the Kurdish-led Autonomous Administration of North-East Syria. However, this consolidation has not brought reconciliation; instead, the country remains fractured along ethnic and sectarian lines, with ongoing "cold wars" between minority communities and the new authorities. These internal tensions are largely overlooked by international media and Western policymakers.

Significant ethno-sectarian violence has occurred since the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024. In February/March 2025, widespread killings of Alawites took place in the coastal area following Alawi attacks on a government checkpoint. Druze communities were targeted in late April 2025, and a larger massacre in Sweida province in July 2025 resulted in approximately 1,700 deaths. These incidents, which began with the kidnapping of a Druze merchant, saw widespread violence against Druze civilians, eventually forcing government fighters back after an Israeli air intervention.

Clashes between government forces and Kurdish/Syrian Democratic Forces fighters also occurred in January 2026 after American allies withdrew support. The pattern of sectarian violence indicates the ascendant Sunni Arab majority asserting dominance and settling scores with other groups, including the formerly dominant Alawites and the suppressed Druze and Kurds. The responses of these minorities are shaped by geopolitical factors, with a more defiant stance adopted when external partners are available, and quiescence when they are not.

The current situation warrants close observation, particularly for the Druze, Alawites, and Kurds. Their interactions with the new Sunni Arab authorities, influenced by regional power dynamics and historical grievances, suggest a potential for future escalation despite the current quiet. The international community's inattention to these deep-seated divisions risks overlooking critical fault lines within Syria's fragile social fabric.