COMMENT: Indus Waters Treaty at a strategic crossroads — Part I

For over 65 years, the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) has served as a cornerstone of transboundary water management between India and Pakistan, and a foundation for Pakistan's water resource development. The treaty enabled the creation of the Indus Basin Irrigation System, the world's largest, which irrigates vast areas and supports the majority of Pakistan's food production. Pakistan's economy, including its hydropower and agriculture sectors, relies heavily on the predictable flows guaranteed by the IWT, which has also contributed to strategic stability in South Asia.

However, this stability was fundamentally challenged in May 2025 when India unilaterally announced it was holding the IWT in abeyance. This move is widely viewed as a blatant violation of binding treaty obligations and international law. While the global community advocates for strengthened governance and transparency in shared river basins under the "One Water-One Vision" principle, India is perceived as moving in the opposite direction.

The strategic consequences for Pakistan are severe. India's decision marks a departure from decades of treaty-based cooperation, introducing significant uncertainty into a river system critical for Pakistan's water, food, and energy security. Since May 2025, India has intensified upstream infrastructure development on the western rivers, including plans for expanding the Ranbir Canal and the Chenab-Beas Link Tunnel, which could threaten Pakistan's long-term water security.

Furthermore, India has suspended the sharing of hydrological data for the Western Rivers with Pakistan's Commissioner for Indus Waters, contrary to treaty obligations. This lack of timely river flow information during the 2025 flood season adversely affected Pakistan's flood forecasting and emergency preparedness, increasing risks to human life, infrastructure, and livelihoods. Such actions are inconsistent with humanitarian principles and undermine international water-course cooperation.