Commentary: The key to Changhua’s four-way county race is not the four-way split, but these two factors

The decisive question in Changhua’s four-way county chief election is not which party has the larger base. It is who can turn supporters out on election day and who can win voters in the middle.

The contest still centers on the Democratic Progressive Party and the Kuomintang. But two independent candidates could change the result by taking votes from the major parties. Changhua’s county elections have alternated between blue and green forces for years. In 2014, DPP candidate Wei Ming-gu won more than 380,000 votes and over 53 percent, giving the party its first majority victory in a Changhua county chief election. The KMT’s Wang Hui-mei then won in 2018 and 2022, defeating her DPP opponents by more than 90,000 votes each time.

The two parties’ core support has remained around 270,000 to 280,000 votes. Recent winners, however, have exceeded 350,000 votes and sometimes approached 400,000. That gap makes independent voters, first-time voters and overall turnout the critical sources of additional support.

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The key is not who has the larger base, but who can turn supporters out to vote and who can win more support from middle-ground voters

DPP candidate Chen Su-yue is a close ally of former county chief Wei Ming-gu. She has served two terms as a county councilor and four terms as a legislator. She lost races for county councilor and mayor of Yuanlin, but won more than 100,000 votes in the 2020 legislative election, the highest total recorded in Changhua legislative elections. She won re-election to a fourth term in 2024 with more than 97,000 votes and is described as a major vote winner in southern Changhua. Holding the DPP base is not seen as her biggest challenge. The key is whether she can extend her campaign into northern Changhua and attract middle-ground and younger voters.

KMT candidate Wei Ping-cheng, a former Control Yuan disciplinary committee chairman and lawyer from a successful sock-manufacturing family, is dealing with internal tensions from the nomination process. He entered late, has limited name recognition and has not completed party consolidation. Yet he could benefit from Wang Hui-mei’s eight years in office if the blue camp reunites and Wang, county council speaker Hsieh Tien-lin and party chief Hsiao Ching-tien fully mobilize their organizations.

Independent former Changhua mayor Chiu Chien-fu has significant grassroots strength. His support overlaps more with Chen Su-yue’s DPP base, which could put greater pressure on her than on Wei Ping-cheng. Independent county councilor Chen Chung-chia entered the county race only at the final registration stage. His father, Chen Chao-jung, and mother, Yu Ting-ya, both previously served as legislators and provincial assembly members. His organizational network is smaller than those of the other candidates, though he has some strength in several townships.

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Wang Hui-mei has secured many construction projects and reduced debt over her eight years in office. Her good governance represents a guarantee of the KMT’s governing quality, and I will continue it