Commentary: The West Should Not Forget Afghanistan – The Taliban Regime May Be Less Stable Than It Appears

Five years after their triumphant return, the Taliban appear to have a firm grip on Afghanistan. However, this outward stability masks deep-seated issues: the country is mired in economic crisis, and rumblings of discontent persist within society. The conflict with neighboring Pakistan also looms, threatening to escalate at any moment.

Internationally, the Taliban regime remains isolated. Yet, from within, no immediate danger seems to threaten its rule. For the first time since the 1970s, Afghanistan is experiencing a relative absence of open combat. Citizens can travel between cities and along roads with a greater sense of security, a stark contrast to the daily attacks, kidnappings, and murders that plagued the country before 2021.

While initial Western fears of Afghanistan becoming a breeding ground for international terrorism have not materialized, and the Taliban have largely adhered to an amnesty for political opponents, their rule has proven more doctrinaire than anticipated. Their refusal to cease support for the Pakistani militant group Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has ignited an open conflict with Pakistan, highlighting a persistent source of instability.