Commentator Defends Taipei Election Predictions Against Influencer's Doubts

Political commentator Huang Wei-han has pushed back against criticism of his election predictions, particularly his forecast of a 40% vote share for a Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate in Taipei. The commentary, initially made on a political discussion program, was challenged by online influencer "cheap," who deemed the prediction "too exaggerated."

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If the blue camp not only underestimates Shen Po-yang, but also lacks the common sense of 'a base of 40%, a total vote of 500,000,' it is difficult to say what will happen in the future.

Huang, writing on Facebook, defended his analysis by emphasizing historical election results in Taipei. He pointed out that the DPP has consistently secured around 40% of the vote in one-on-one contests against the Kuomintang (KMT). Citing past mayoral elections, he noted that candidates like Chen Shui-bian, Hsieh Chang-ting, and Su Tseng-chang all achieved vote shares between 40% and 45%. Huang stated that a 40% base for the DPP in Taipei is not unusual and translates to approximately 520,000 votes.

He further elaborated on the potential for DPP city council candidates to win all 25 seats, a prediction also deemed excessive by some. Huang compared the total votes for councilors in recent elections, noting that in 2022, when the DPP won 21 seats, the total votes for council candidates were 420,000, only slightly less than the mayoral candidate's vote share. Given the potential for a DPP mayoral candidate to reach 500,000 votes this time, Huang argued that winning all council seats is plausible, especially with conservative candidate nominations.

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The green camp's base in Taipei is around 40% up and down, getting 40%? Is it very surprising?

Huang criticized those who questioned his predictions for lacking a solid understanding of Taipei's political landscape. He likened the situation to a basketball player facing Stephen Curry without anticipating his three-point shots. He concluded by suggesting that if the opposition and commentators fail to grasp basic electoral realities like a 40% base vote and 500,000 potential votes, their future strategies may be flawed.

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This is like playing basketball against Curry and not knowing he specializes in three-pointers, and foolishly waiting under the basket to block his shot.