Conflicts and extreme weather push global food prices to a four-year high, UN warns

Global food prices have reached their highest level in four years, with war, extreme weather and disrupted trade tightening supply expectations, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization said.

The FAO Food Price Index rose for a third consecutive month in August, reaching 133.3 points, its highest level since late 2022. All five categories tracked by the index increased: cereals, vegetable oils, sugar, meat and dairy.

Sugar recorded the sharpest rise, climbing almost 12% from July to its highest level in a year. Cereal prices increased by more than 2%, reaching their highest point in over two years. Wheat and maize became more expensive as military strikes disrupted shipping through the Black Sea, a major route for Russian and Ukrainian grain exports.

FAO chief economist Maximo Torero said, “Climate shocks, geopolitical tensions and disrupted trade logistics are converging to tighten supply expectations.” Fertilizer supplies also face pressure from the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran. The Strait of Hormuz, where the United States and Iran are imposing a blockade, carries a large share of global fertilizer trade.

Higher wholesale prices can feed into consumer prices in the months ahead. The risk is compounded by global warming and the return of El Niño. Heatwaves in Europe reduced crop yields this summer, while the weather pattern threatens production in Asia. The World Food Programme has warned that El Niño could push another 50 million people into acute hunger by the end of next year.

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Climate shocks, geopolitical tensions and disrupted trade logistics are converging to tighten supply expectations.