Could Arms Sales Become a Bargaining Chip? Ming Ju-cheng Offers Two Ways Taiwan Can Guard Against a Trump-Xi ‘Grand Deal’

Taiwan must prepare for the possibility that arms sales and its political future could become bargaining chips when Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet in late September, according to National Taiwan University professor emeritus Ming Ju-cheng.

Ming said Xi could present Trump with a major order that would give the U.S. president material for a high-profile political success. In return, he said, Beijing could seek major concessions on Taiwan, including opposition to Taiwanese independence, pressure on Taipei to enter peace talks, a fourth communique and an end to U.S. arms sales to the island.

The timing could favor such an exchange, Ming argued. With the U.S. midterm elections approaching, the unresolved U.S.-Iran war and Trump’s standing failing to improve, Xi’s visit could offer the American president an opportunity to promote a large economic agreement. Ming also linked the possible arrangement to Xi’s effort to secure another five-year term.

Taiwan’s domestic political debate, however, has focused mainly on the approaching election, leaving limited attention for the potential Trump-Xi meeting. Ming said Taipei should not overlook the risk. He called for officials to guard against Chinese cognitive warfare and immediately begin comprehensive engagement with the U.S. Congress.

Ming also discussed indicators proposed by U.S. scholars for a possible Chinese attack on Taiwan. He said some of those factors were useful, but argued that Beijing still faces concerns over internal mutiny, economic collapse and possible intervention by the United States and Japan.