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Could Hezbollah Launch a New War in Support of Iran?
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia /Conflict & Security

Could Hezbollah Launch a New War in Support of Iran?

From Asharq Al-Awsat · () English

Summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

News Named sources Ongoing story
  • Lebanese citizens fear Hezbollah may launch a new war in support of Iran amid regional tensions and stalled US-Iranian diplomacy.
  • Hezbollah has paused military operations since a mid-June ceasefire, and Israeli military activity in southern Lebanon has decreased.
  • Observers believe Iran could activate regional proxies like Hezbollah if it feels threatened by escalation, despite Hezbollah's insistence on diplomacy.

Lebanon is bracing for the possibility of Hezbollah initiating a new conflict in support of Iran, as regional conditions deteriorate and US-Iranian understandings falter. This fear stems from Hezbollah's past interventions, including its 2023 campaign backing Gaza and its retaliation in March for the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

no one can definitively determine the red lines drawn by Hezbollah, which, if crossed, would prompt a return to resistance in its broadest sense.

— Qassem QassirA political analyst close to Hezbollah's positioning, commenting on the conditions that might prompt Hezbollah to resume military operations.

Despite a recent lull in Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah's halt to all military actions since a mid-June ceasefire, the resumption of attacks between the US and Iran fuels speculation. Observers suggest Tehran might call upon its regional proxies, such as Hezbollah, to reignite fronts if it perceives a major escalation against it.

However, it is expected that a broad Israeli assault on the Ali al-Taher hill would naturally compel the group to defend it.

— Qassem QassirA political analyst describing a potential trigger for Hezbollah's return to conflict.

Past statements from Hezbollah officials amplify these concerns. MP Ali Ammar pledged support for Iran in a new war, while Secretary-General Naim Qassem emphasized maintaining diplomatic channels between the US and Iran. Political analyst Qassem Qassir noted that Hezbollah's "red lines" for returning to "resistance in its broadest sense" are unclear but could be triggered by significant Israeli actions or a breakdown in Lebanese-Israeli negotiations.

The red lines that could prompt Hezbollah to resume fighting are determined by Iran, not the party's own leadership.

— Dr. Riad KahwajiA security and defense analyst explaining the influence of Iran on Hezbollah's decisions.

Security analyst Dr. Riad Kahwaji believes that Iran, not Hezbollah's leadership, dictates the timing for reopening support fronts. He stated that Tehran alone decides when the party will resume military operations. The situation remains contingent on ground conditions and the political climate, with a potential deadlock in Lebanese-Israeli negotiations also cited as a possible trigger for renewed Hezbollah engagement.

Tehran alone decides when the party will reopen the support front.

— Dr. Riad KahwajiA security and defense analyst on Iran's control over Hezbollah's military actions.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by Asharq Al-Awsat. Summarized and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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