Could Trump’s push for Abraham Accords undermine long-term peace? - analysis

Former U.S. President Donald Trump is intensifying pressure on Middle Eastern nations to join the Abraham Accords, suggesting that potential deals are contingent on their participation. "I’m not sure we should make the deal if they don’t… join the Abraham Accords," Trump stated during a cabinet meeting on May 27, specifically mentioning Saudi Arabia and Qatar. He also asserted that these countries "owe" the United States.

This push for broader participation in the Accords occurs against a backdrop of fluctuating reports regarding a potential Iran deal and recent clashes in the Gulf. The original Abraham Accords, finalized in September 2020, marked a significant diplomatic achievement, fostering normalization between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain, with Saudi Arabia's implicit approval. Initially hailed as a new era of peace and cooperation, promising initiatives in green technology and finance, the momentum quickly waned. Gulf states, accustomed to a slower diplomatic pace, grew wary and closely watched Israel's policies.

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I’m not sure we should make the deal if they don’t… join the Abraham Accords

Monarchies in the Gulf, possessing considerable wealth and influence, prefer to proceed cautiously. They previously resisted pressure in 2021 when they felt Jerusalem was attempting to leverage them for Israeli electoral politics. The election of a more right-wing Israeli government in 2022 further concerned Gulf nations, halting any new Abraham Accord partners from emerging and placing normalization talks with Saudi Arabia on hold. The Biden administration has shown little inclination to credit the Trump administration for the Accords, and initiatives like the I2U2 concept have seemingly faded in favor of the India-Middle East Corridor (IMEC).

Regional integration efforts, including the Negev Forum and the N7 initiative, have been severely impacted by the October 7 attack and the subsequent war. In the past year, countries like Saudi Arabia have adopted a more critical stance toward Israel, particularly regarding its actions in Syria. Riyadh's efforts to facilitate ties between the new Syrian government and Washington were met with Israeli airstrikes, a move that reportedly did not sit well with Saudi leadership. Bahrain's Foreign Ministry has also expressed concerns.

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