Dangote refinery cuts West Africa fuel import volumes

The burgeoning output from Nigeria's Dangote Petroleum Refinery is dramatically altering the energy landscape in West Africa, leading to a sharp decline in the region's imports of refined petroleum products. Data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea indicates that West African imports of clean refined products fell to 765,000 barrels per day in May, a 23% drop from April's 997,000 barrels per day.

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West African imports of clean refined products fell significantly within a month as the 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Nigeria expanded output and displaced imported volumes across the region.

Shipping association BIMCO reported an even steeper 44% decrease in imports over the same period. This reduction has caused overall tonne-miles to decline significantly as trading patterns adjust to the new supply reality. The most affected vessel types are LR1 and LR2 product tankers, which saw declines of 88% and 78% respectively, collectively accounting for 55% of the total loss in tonne-miles.

While MR product tanker tonne-miles experienced only a marginal drop, this was largely due to a substantial increase in volumes from the Americas, which partially offset the decline in imports from traditional loading regions. Historically, the Rotterdam-to-Lagos fuel trade was a major route for MR tankers, but this corridor has weakened considerably with Nigeria's expanding domestic refining capacity.

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LR1 and LR2 product tankers recorded the largest declines, down 88 per cent and 78 per cent respectively, and together accounted for 55 per cent of the total tonne-mile loss.

The Dangote Refinery, commissioned in 2024 and reaching its full 650,000 barrels-per-day capacity in February 2026, is now the primary supplier for Nigeria's domestic fuel needs. Government figures show it supplied roughly 80% of Nigeria's gasoline demand in April alone. This shift is not only reducing imports but also positioning Nigeria as a significant regional exporter of refined products, with shipments now directed to neighboring West African countries and beyond.

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A 34-fold increase in volumes from the Americas largely offset the decline, limiting the overall loss.

Analysts suggest that this transformation may challenge the role of key storage and redistribution hubs like Lomé, Togo, which might struggle to maintain previous import volumes. The reduction in demand for long-haul fuel shipments has also led to a reported decline in freight rates on the UK/Continent-to-West Africa route, reflecting the changing dynamics of regional energy supply.

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Data indicated a 39 per cent year-on-year drop in Nigerian clean petroleum product imports by mid-2025, essentially removing a massive source of employment for MR tankers in the Atlantic.