Danube at historic low; hydrologist warns of more frequent extremes

The Danube River in Serbia has hit a historic low, falling below navigable levels and signaling severe hydrological challenges. Hydrologist Dejan Vladiković from the Republic Hydrometeorological Service (RHMZ) stated that the warning for low water levels, initially issued a month and a half ago, has been extended due to the ongoing poor conditions.

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It would be best if we had several cyclones during September with moderate rainfall, and then slowly emerge from this dry period.

Vladiković explained that water flow on domestic rivers like the Kolubara and Jadar, as well as tributaries of the South, West, and Great Morava rivers, has neared or reached the "biological minimum." This critical situation is attributed to a significant deficit in rainfall and persistently high temperatures since July. He noted that low snow reserves in winter and a lack of precipitation in Central Europe since March had already indicated the Danube's low levels for this year.

Looking ahead, Vladiković expressed uncertainty about significant rainfall before the end of August, with more substantial precipitation not expected until around September 9. He cautioned against the possibility of intense cyclones causing severe flooding, drawing parallels to the devastating floods in Austria in September 2024 after a prolonged drought. "It would be best if we had several cyclones during September with moderate rainfall, and then slowly emerge from this dry period," he suggested, advocating for a gradual transition rather than extreme weather shifts.

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We are entering periods where extremes will be more frequent - whether it's minimal or floods and their frequency will increase.

The hydrologist emphasized that the Danube's current level is unprecedented, marking a new historical minimum. While Serbia has experienced dry years since 2000, climate change is increasing the frequency of extremes, including both low water levels and floods. Vladiković warned of significant future problems with water reserves as a consequence of these intensifying climate-related events.

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There will be big problems with water reserves in the future.