DBRS Raises Greece’s Credit Outlook to Positive, Keeps BBB Rating

DBRS has changed Greece’s credit outlook from stable to positive while leaving its long-term sovereign rating at BBB.

The Canadian agency made the change for Greece’s long-term ratings in both foreign and domestic currency. It also raised the outlook for the country’s short-term ratings to positive from stable, affirming them at R-2 (high).

DBRS said the revised outlook reflects its expectation that Greece’s public-debt-to-GDP ratio will continue to fall significantly in the coming years. The economy has so far absorbed the effects of the energy shock while performing well, and tourist arrivals increased during the first half of the year.

The European Commission forecasts real GDP growth of 1.8% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027. Government finances have improved substantially in recent years, helped by economic growth and structural reforms that strengthened tax compliance and expanded the country’s tax base.

Although the government adopted some expansionary measures this year, including income-tax cuts, fiscal performance is expected to remain strong. The Commission forecasts a primary government surplus of 4.0% of GDP in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027, compared with 4.9% in 2025.

DBRS noted that current polls point to a potentially difficult period of government formation after next year’s parliamentary elections. It nevertheless considers policy risk limited because major political parties broadly agree on important policy issues.

The BBB rating is supported by the improved financial condition of Greece’s domestic banking sector, the country’s credible economic-policy framework and its membership in the European Union and eurozone. A further upgrade could follow if debt falls broadly as expected and investment-supporting reforms continue. DBRS could return the outlook to stable if debt reduction falls well short of expectations.