Democrats target long-shot House races in hopes of a national upset

They are not toss-up races, and Democrats are not expected to win them. But in a year shaped by an unpopular war in Iran, persistent inflation concerns and the usual midterm penalty for the party in power, the party is daring to dream about Republican districts that normally sit safely out of reach.

Democrats hope a national wave could transform these long-shot contests into a sign of a broader political shift. They point to 2018, when backlash against Donald Trump helped change the balance of power in Congress. The party avoided the predicted “red wave” in 2022, but Republicans later captured both chambers when Trump was reelected.

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House Democrats are expanding the battlefield deep into Trump terrain.

“House Democrats are expanding the battlefield deep into Trump terrain,” said Washington Rep. Suzan DelBene, chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Republican campaign committee spokesman Mike Marinella dismissed the effort: “National Democrats can keep throwing darts at the map and calling wherever they land a battleground, but nobody is buying it.”

Nebraska offers one example. Attention has focused on the competitive open seat in Omaha’s 2nd District, the state’s “blue dot,” but Democrats have also placed the more rural and conservative 1st District on their list of races in play. The seat has not voted Democratic for president since Lyndon B. Johnson won it in 1964.

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National Democrats can keep throwing darts at the map and calling wherever they land a battleground, but nobody is buying it.

Chris Backemeyer, a former senior State Department official from Lincoln, is attempting to end that losing streak. He said he left Washington after Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency arrived and “just wanted me to fire a lot of people.” After quitting, he traveled across the country with his wife and three children before attending a town hall hosted by Republican Rep. Mike Flood.

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Just wanted me to fire a lot of people.

Backemeyer recalled that the line for the event stretched for blocks and that tensions rose as residents questioned Flood about Medicaid cuts and reductions in federal veterans benefits. “Nebraskans deserve better,” Backemeyer said he remembers thinking.

Flood won his first election in 2022 and secured the seat by more than 20 points two years later. He has continued holding town halls in conservative areas, even as many House Republicans avoid them. Backemeyer said he has not been driven away from any stop on the campaign trail.

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Nebraskans deserve better.