Depleted U.S. missile stockpiles could slow down the war in Iran

The ongoing conflict in Iran is rapidly depleting the United States' stockpiles of crucial offensive and defensive missiles, raising concerns about the war's intensity and future trajectory. Experts suggest that this depletion could force a significant reduction in U.S. military operations if new supplies cannot be rapidly produced.

According to sources with insight into U.S. military inventories, the United States has expended nearly 80% of its THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) missiles and approximately two-thirds of its Patriot air defense missiles in the five months since the war began. These missiles are vital for intercepting ballistic missiles and defending U.S. bases, ships, and allies in the Middle East against Iranian attacks.

Johan Granholm, an instructor at the Swedish Defence University, noted that the U.S. has used three years' worth of production for these missiles in a short period. The U.S. has also largely exhausted its stock of ATACMS and PRSM offensive missiles. Granholm stated that if the U.S. does not intend to end the war, its intensity will likely decrease significantly. He added that the alternative would be to employ manned fighter jets closer to the front lines, a move that would expose pilots and aircraft to substantial risks.

Allies in the Persian Gulf region, heavily reliant on American air defense systems, have expressed anxiety over the shrinking U.S. missile reserves. They fear this could weaken their ability to counter potential Iranian retaliatory strikes. The missile shortage has been cited as a reason why President Donald Trump opted against initiating large-scale bombings of Iran recently. However, increasing missile production is a slow process. Manufacturers face challenges with hundreds of subcontractors supplying specialized components, making it difficult to ramp up output across multiple factories. Granholm estimates that building an advanced missile can take anywhere from two to five years.