Despite Beating OPEC Quota, Nigeria Misses H1 Budget Oil Target by 38.4m Barrels

Nigeria missed its crude oil production target for the first half of 2026 by a significant margin, despite meeting its Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota. The country's output deficit is estimated at 38.4 million barrels, potentially costing the nation around $2.49 billion in gross revenue.

Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) revealed that total liquids production, including crude oil and condensates, averaged 1.626 million barrels per day (bpd) between January and June. This figure falls short of the 1.84 million bpd benchmark set in the national budget. The shortfall translates to an average daily underproduction of 213,815 bpd, or 11.6 percent, over the six-month period.

While Nigeria slightly surpassed its OPEC-approved crude oil production quota of 1.5 million bpd, the national budget's higher target remained out of reach. The cumulative production for the first half of the year was approximately 294.6 million barrels, compared to the budgeted expectation of 333.0 million barrels. Based on the 2026 budget's oil benchmark price of $64.85 per barrel, the revenue gap is estimated at $2.49 billion. Analysts suggest the actual financial loss could be higher, as Brent crude traded above the benchmark for most of the period.

Despite the production shortfall, the NUPRC data indicates a steady recovery in Nigeria's upstream oil sector throughout the review period. Total liquids production saw fluctuations, reaching a low in February but recovering to 1.735 million bpd by June. This represented a 6.6 percent increase from January to June and a 16.9 percent growth from the February low. However, even June's production remained below the budget target, showing that the fiscal goal was still not met.