Does higher female education cause low birth rates? It explains only 5% of the decline

Women's rising educational attainment explains only about 5% of the decline in Japan's completed fertility rate, according to a study cited by the Asahi Shimbun.

Completed fertility measures the average number of children women in the same generation have had by the time they effectively reach the end of their childbearing years. Unlike the total fertility rate, which shows recent birth trends, it helps compare changes in childbearing behavior across generations.

A research team led by Takashi Unayama of Kyoto University reached its conclusion by analyzing Japan's national census data. The team developed a new method that linked census results collected every 10 years and estimated the distribution of children by generation.

Using that method, the researchers estimated completed fertility by education level for women born between 1940 and 1980. In Japan, higher female education has long been cited as a cause of declining births, on the grounds that it increased the number of unmarried women and encouraged later marriage. The study found that this factor accounts for only a small share of the overall decline.