Dual Tropical Disturbances Brewing: Potential for Tropical Depressions, Low Typhoon Chance Forecast for Taiwan

Taiwan may experience increased rainfall between June 18 and 25 due to two developing tropical disturbances, according to meteorologist Lin De-en. One disturbance, designated 95W, is located in the South China Sea and is expected to move westward towards Hainan Island, posing no direct threat to Taiwan. The other, 94W, situated northeast of the Philippines, is forecast to develop into a tropical depression and move towards Taiwan.

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This week, there are dual disturbances developing in the South China Sea and the waters east of the Philippines, both of which may strengthen into tropical depressions.

Lin, a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Sciences from National Taiwan University, shared these projections on his Facebook page, "Lin Laoshi Weather Station," citing the latest numerical model simulations from Europe's EC-AIFS. He indicated that the overall atmospheric conditions within the large low-pressure zone are conducive to increased moisture and atmospheric instability, leading to a higher probability of rain across Taiwan.

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The tropical disturbance currently in the South China Sea, 95W, has the opportunity to further strengthen into a tropical depression and is expected to move west towards Hainan Island, posing no direct threat to Taiwan.

The period between June 21 and 24 is anticipated to see the most significant impact, with localized rainfall potentially becoming more concentrated and pronounced. However, Lin cautioned that current environmental conditions do not appear favorable for either disturbance to intensify further into a typhoon. The probability of either developing into a full-fledged typhoon is considered relatively low.

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As for the other tropical disturbance, 94W, northeast of the Philippines, it also has the opportunity to strengthen into a tropical depression and will subsequently move towards Taiwan.

This forecast comes with a content warning, indicating that the news is restricted to individuals 18 years and older, as per Taiwanese regulations. The Taiwan Website Classification Fund (TICRF) guidelines are mentioned for content labeling.

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Currently, the environmental conditions are not conducive to the continued development of the two tropical disturbances, so the chance of them becoming typhoons is relatively small.