Earthquakes put Venezuelan migration at another crossroads

Venezuela's ongoing migration crisis faces a new challenge as a powerful double earthquake on June 24 threatens to upend the recent stabilization of emigration. For years, the massive exodus of Venezuelans had slowed, with some even considering a return home amid family reunification efforts or perceived economic improvements. However, the magnitude 7.2 and 7.5 earthquakes, striking just 39 seconds apart, devastated regions like La Guaira and have created immense uncertainty.

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The first thing is how we efficiently support the families and those affected by this earthquake, which occurs amid a great earthquake that has lasted 27 years – the destruction of the country – and which finds a country without institutions, without resources, without hospitals and without the capacity to respond.

Sociologist Tomás Páez, president of the Venezuelan Diaspora Observatory, notes it is too early to quantify the exact impact on migration. Yet, he emphasizes the earthquake adds significant pressure to an already vulnerable population. "The first thing is how we efficiently support the families and those affected by this earthquake, which occurs amid a great earthquake that has lasted 27 years – the destruction of the country," Páez stated, highlighting Venezuela's lack of institutions, resources, and capacity to respond.

The immediate consequences extend beyond fatalities. Thousands of families have lost their homes, while others await structural inspections before deeming their dwellings safe. Many face repair costs they cannot afford. Páez predicts significant internal displacement as people seek refuge with relatives or occupy public spaces. The "great unknown" is whether this internal movement will translate into a new international migratory wave.

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This will cause internal displacement, firstly. People moving to relatives' homes or living in public spaces because they lost their homes or are awaiting inspections to know if they can live in them again.

Páez anticipates that international displacement is likely to occur, though precise data will emerge as countries update their migration records. This potential new exodus comes after a period where Venezuelan migration had shifted from a mass flight to a more stabilized, albeit still significant, outflow. The Observatory, which tracks diaspora mobility, will monitor these developments closely.

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It is very difficult to predict if there will also be international displacement. One assumes that it will happen.