Economic pressure can buy Israel time. Mistaking it for a strategy would squander it

Israel faces a critical juncture in its strategy toward Iran, with a growing focus on economic pressure as a means to weaken the Islamic Republic. However, this approach risks a fundamental miscalculation: mistaking the act of buying time for a genuine strategy to resolve the underlying threat.

Earlier assessments suggested that military setbacks might provoke internal unrest in Iran, but attention has now shifted to the potential impact of a blockade. The underlying assumption in both scenarios is that sufficient pressure will lead to the regime's collapse. While a blockade would undoubtedly impose costs on Tehran, making Israel safer by limiting Iran's resources for missiles, drones, and its nuclear program, weakening Iran is not synonymous with toppling its leadership.

History provides numerous examples of authoritarian regimes enduring prolonged periods of severe economic hardship without succumbing. Saddam Hussein's Iraq, Bashar al-Assad's Syria, Cuba, Zimbabwe, and Venezuela have all experienced crushing sanctions, currency collapses, and widespread poverty, yet their ruling elites maintained control, often tightening their grip on society. Iran appears to fit this pattern.

The Islamic Republic is increasingly characterized as a security state dominated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which controls instruments of coercion, significant economic sectors, and key political institutions. The IRGC has demonstrated a willingness to use force to preserve its rule and has spent years adapting to sanctions, developing a "survival economy" focused on endurance through sanctions evasion, smuggling, and tighter state control, rather than on growth.